- Fits and Starts
- Posts
- I'm brilliant again
As I hope you have learned by now, I am a pretty modest person. I don’t like to brag about my many fantastic accomplishments and all of the really amazing things I have done.
That said,
In just the last few weeks, since start of trading March 13, my overall portfolio is up more than 7%.
A few of the stocks I bought that day, including some bank stocks, are already up 20% in just those few weeks.
I bought about a dozen stocks in early March, and all of them are winners.
Now sure, the S&P 500 is up 6.4% since that time, and given I have quite a bit of exposure to financials in my portfolio and we were coming off of the bank panic lows I really ought to be more up than just 60 basis points or so. I attribute most of the softness to investors not fully appreciating some really great stocks in my portfolio during that time.
But still. As that carefully-picked data clearly shows, I am a pretty amazing investor.
It wasn’t always this way. I used to be a pretty dumb investor. In early March, for example. My stocks lost money during that period.
And now a brief (paid) endorsement:
If you are going to borrow data instead of researching it all on your own, I’d highly suggest you use Koyfin as your source.
To the extent that this content is intelligent, it is so because I use tools like Koyfin to make sure I have the best charts, data, analysis, and transcripts available. That chart above is a simple example of what can be done! Koyfin provides a lot of the same tools you get with a Bloomberg terminal or Capital IQ at a fraction of the price.
Interested? Click the button below to get 10% off your first year using Koyfin.
Some might say I am just taking credit for the natural ebbs and flows of the market. Stocks had a rough go for a while there in March…
Indeed, I am pretty sure my underperformance in early March was primarily due to the market’s instability.
But it is hard to argue that my strong performance in recent weeks has been simple dumb luck. After all, I was the one who was able to say that the whole banking crisis boiled down to some banks being dumb. And I accurately predicted the Fed would not give into the fear and make a panicked move.
I did buy some stocks during that period based on these beliefs, and those stocks have gone up since there. That’s brilliance in action. One step short of a CNBC guest appearance, if I’m being honest.
It feels good to be right. I do understand that it can be a dangerous feeling. Sometimes it is nothing more than the random flows of the universe and the butterfly flapping its wings in Mongolia that produces the outcome that you are proud of. It is probably wise, on average, not to get too high during the good times or too low during the bad times, and to understand that over the long-term quality wins out and there is not much to take from the day to day moves of the market.
I think that is good advice for most investors. I hope investors don’t get too caught up in the back and forths, which as we saw in March can change quickly. It is exhausting to get that emotionally invested in one day’s or one week’s trading.
But sitting here reflecting on my portfolio on April 1, 2023, I have to say: For those of us who are brilliant, it does feel good.
In my spare time between Twitter posts, I’ve been spending my time at a small, private school doing things like teaching a personal finance class, helping out with athletics, and generally getting in the way. It is fun. And it is healthy for society because it is a much better use of my time than if I was left to my own devices!
I’m enjoying working on Fits and Starts, and grateful for all the feedback. Some have asked if I am eventually going to take this behind a paywall. The truth is, I’m not sure. The better answer is, definitely not for now.
But if you would really like to pay me, I have a suggestion: How about making a tax-deductible donation to that little school that keeps me busy?
If you would like to give, click here and then hit the “make a gift” button on the page. Do me a favor and put “thanks Lou” or something in the comment section of the form so I know if this works, and I can thank you in return.
Zero obligation, but I can assure you it is going to a good cause! And I would be grateful for the help.
Disclaimer: Fits and Starts DOES NOT provide financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Stocks mentioned are as reference only, and a mention should not be interpreted as a buy or sell recommendation. The author is not a registered advisor or a broker/dealer. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. The information contained within is not and should not be construed as investment advice, and does not purport to be.
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.