Staring at bottoms

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes

I can’t say for sure when a market has hit its peak, or when it has hit its low for the cycle. No one can.

But I can say this: If we have hit the bottom this time around, it will almost surely be the first bottom that featured porn stars talking about their investment acumen.

Yes, this is snark. And yes, all I am doing is reaffirming my priors that the market is going to face some difficulties this year. (Remember, even if it does that is ok.) And yes, the similarity between this ad and the scene from The Big Short with a Miami stripper talking about her portfolio of investment properties is delicious.

I need to also state that this is a no-judgment zone. I have nothing but respect for Mr. Dice, Ms. Ann, Ms. Love, and Ms. Lovia. I am sure they are all highly-accomplished in their chosen profession. And I have no doubt they can beat the market pros. Frankly, it isn’t all that hard to beat the pros.

But this porn star push is also one of the more over-the-top examples of how Wall Street is sold to you. And a good reminder of the importance of not buying into the hype.

And now a brief (paid) endorsement:

To the extent that this content is intelligent, it is so because I use tools like Koyfin to make sure I have the best charts, data, analysis, and transcripts available. Koyfin provides a lot of the same tools you get with a Bloomberg terminal or Capital IQ at a fraction of the price.

Interested? Click the button below to get 10% off your first year using Koyfin.

Usually, the sales pitch is less over-the-top than porn stars. But celebrities are quite common. We are barely a year removed from Matt Damon questioning my manhood for refusing to buy crypto. Back in the day Joe Namath advised seniors on healthcare investments. And the whole point of fund managers going on CNBC is to build out their brands, to become rock stars in their own right. To state the obvious, celebrity sells.

Matt Damon’s crypto cringe is now the stuff of memes. And I’m not going to say Joe Namath will put his name on anything, but the man did once endorse a brand of pantyhose.

There is a fine line to be walked here. In one sense, I am saying that anyone can beat the market and the pros should be mostly ignored. In another sense, I am mocking people in fields unrelated to finance (obvious joke about ‘either way, you are f—-’ avoided) for giving financial advice.

If anyone can beat the market, there is no reason this collection of porn stars or Matt Damon or Broadway Joe can’t provide reasonable financial advice that will work just as well, if not better, than some asset management heavyweight.

The lesson then isn’t to avoid the porn stars selling financial advice completely. Nor is it to dismiss pantyhose endorsements from quarterbacks. But rather, the lesson is to filter all of that talk and guidance and stay true to your own plan.

It’s pretty easy to do so when it is an over-the-top example like these. But they are useful to keep in mind because it is much harder to do it when it is a seemingly more credible, or at least less over-the-top, source.

When a money manager goes on CNBC and tells you to sell everything because they foresee an economic collapse…

When a guy on a message board who seems to know his s— tells you that PennyCorp is about to go to the moon…

When someone knocks on your door with an annuity that is guaranteed to beat the market without any risk…

It would be sorta weird and flippant to end this by suggesting that every time you think of following a wave or going with some can’t miss investment advice, you should instead think of porn stars.

But let’s just say it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for you to keep Damon Dice in mind every time someone wants to pitch you the next big thing.

Disclaimer: Fits and Starts DOES NOT provide financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Stocks mentioned are as reference only, and a mention should not be interpreted as a buy or sell recommendation. The author is not a registered advisor or a broker/dealer. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. The information contained within is not and should not be construed as investment advice, and does not purport to be.

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.